The third world goes MAD

Monday, 12 April 1999

AGNI is the Hindu god of fire. It was Agni, so the legend goes, who protected the chastity of Seeta and returned her unharmed to Rama after she had been kidnapped by the king of Sri Lanka. Every important Hindu ceremony begins with the fire ritual which supposedly burns away bad omens and evil wishes.

It's also the name India has chosen for her latest military toy, a medium-range ballistic missile with a 2200km striking range placing potential nuclear payloads within reach of China and Pakistan.

The has been much wailing and gnashing of teeth among the peace-loving nations of the UN Security Council - each of them nuclear powers armed with intercontinental ballistic missiles. India has in the meanwhile nevertheless proceeded down the path of insanity.

Why?

The answer perhaps lies in a quote from an anonymous political analyst speaking to Reuters: "Look at Kosovo, Iraq. You can be in trouble if you do not have a credible deterrent."

This analyst has a point. The United States - through Nato - bypassed the "lawful" route of obtaining permission from the United Nations Security Council and arbitrarily declared war against Yugoslavia.

Yugoslavia under Slobodan Milosevic have systematically conducted a campaign of genocide against their own citizens of Albanian descent. Thousands upon thousands of innocents are being systematically exterminated - be it by execution or by the more chilling extinction of their history and culture. So what's the problem?

The problem is the United States. The world's military and economic superpower has over the course of this century shown itself to be particularly partisan in its commitment towards issues of human rights.

United Nations resolutions against Iraq have been gleefully enforced, in spite of the devastation this has heaped upon the Iraqi people. Meanwhile, UN resolutions against Israel have been pointedly ignored. ('Nuff said on this point.)

Some 11 months ago when India test-detonated a nuclear device, the US was quick to slap sanctions against India. Meanwhile, the US has conveniently turned a blind eye to human rights violations by the Russians against the Chechens. With China, bold statements are made by the US about human rights and Tiananmen Square. The Chinese tell the Americans where to get off, and the Americans behave themselves.

India has no doubt learnt an important lesson from all of this - only those with muscle get taken seriously. But it's a dangerous lesson. The safety of the appropriately named Mutually Assured Destruction is no safety at all.

Analysts speak glibly of the possibility of an accelerated arms race among India and Pakistan. They do not have a clue. The arms race between India and Pakistan never slowed down. What has always been the case is that the arms race is more affordable to India than to Pakistan. The sheer size of India's $1,5 trillion economy means that the proportionate amount of money Pakistan has to spend to play catch-up is so ludicrous as to drive one to tears.

They forget that the other country that India has fought against is China - and that China continues to bristle at India's stance on human rights issues such as Tibet.

Political legend has it that in 1984, Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping sat down with UK premier Margaret Thatcher and said: "I can put one million troops into Hong Kong. What can you do to stop me?" Thatcher, wisely, decided to give up Hong Kong.

India is probably the only country in the world that could match China for armed manpower. It could not match China's nuclear capability. Now that hurdle has been cleared.

Pakistan should spend its money more wisely than on a new arms programme. China is the real issue at stake.

The MAD race has begun.