"Those who half a decade ago were all too happy to deny any ties to the National Party are suddenly acting as though their dog has died..."
THAT was Kate's assessment of the reaction to FW's announcement that the Nat's were leaving the government of national unity. One solid dependable pillar of white liberal journalism was flopping about the newsrooms like a chicken with his head cut off, decrying the turn of events as the worst crisis to strike the country since abandoning of the gold standard in the 1930s.
It makes me think that Sowetan editor Aggrey Klaaste is right when he keeps reminding us that some differences between black and white perceptions are so firmly entrenched that they are likely to be with us for a long time.
For my part, worse crises have been Sharpeville 1960, Soweto 1976, the entire country through the 80's, and all of those incidents of sheer horror throughout our history that are being agonisingly played out at the Truth Commission hearings.
The fact that the state apparatus is finally out of the business of murdering its population is a sign to me that the worst crisis is over.
But even if one takes the approach that the economy matters more than any amount of state sanctioned repression -- after all, the much vaunted "Asian Tigers" owe a lot of their success to denying their citizens basic human rights -- this sudden bleating by old guard opinion makers that the departure of the remnants of old white power spells fiscal doom can only be interpreted as racist.
Why? Because the Nats with the sheer financial bungling have across decades dragged what should be one of the richest countries in the world to the brink of fiscal disaster.
Fact: The National Party during its reign incurred a national debt of 18 billion US dollars. Servicing that debt is one of the biggest chunks of our budget and is one of the more disastrous side effects of the fall of the rand. That amount of money would have covered our entire health budget for 104 years.
Fact: The value of the rand tumbled from R2.5863 per dollar in 1990 to R3.5490 per dollar in 1994. That's a fall of 37 percent over the last 4 years of National Party style fiscal discipline.
Fact: Mineral resources which are non-renewable provide two-thirds of our exports. Apart from a morally dubious lead in armament technology, the National Party government failed to develop significant export potential in any field.
Fact: Our most important imports are machinery which accounts for 32 percent, and transport equipment which makes up 15 percent. These are areas where we have had the infrastructure, manpower, and technical expertise to become self-sufficient, but failed from lack of planning.
The Nats are now looking towards new ground. FW is "raring to go" as leader of the opposition. His party will be positioned as centre-right champions of the middle-class with Christian values and financial discipline as its cornerstones.
Who are they trying to kid?
The ANC has had the church in its corner for decades, most notably in the form of Desmond Tutu. But has also not made an issue of it so as to alienate those millions of us who are not Christian.
As for financial discipline, inflation under the ANC-led government has dropped to its lowest level in years.
The supposed socialists have slashed the housing budget from R4-billion to R1,5-billion, and the health budget from R1,44 billion to R772 million.
In spite of insatiable demand for consumer credit, the interest rates have been kept high enough to prevent unrestricted growth that would trigger inflation.
Our non-mineral exports are booming, particularly in agriculture. Our citrus exports have now outpaced Israel and have confounded conventional wisdom that single point of supply agricultural exports are inefficient. Other fruit, wine, and fish exports have also skyrocketed, helped in part by the falling rand.
Our mineral exports -- remember that those provide two-thirds of our income -- will also go through the roof. Amcoal has boosted profits by a staggering 72 percent. Profitability of mines overall will increase substantially.
Our technological expansion into Africa shows tremendous promise. The latest indication is an ambitious plan by Eskom to electrify all of Southern Africa with enough surplus capacity to eventually export to Europe.
The worst is yet to come in the falling of the rand. Exchange controls will be lifted, and capital will flee the country. But markets do not live in the short term only. Long term investment is here to stay. Commitment to development of infrastructure will ensure growth in the long run.
There is still a role for strong opposition. In spite of bellicose Buthelezi, Inkatha's commitment to greater regional autonomy is good for the country. The Democratic Party can fire Tony Leon, democratise its support base, and develop itself as a watchdog for human rights.
But the Nats have no platform. Their emperor has no clothes. The party should disband now, allowing its right wing to join hands with the Freedom Front, while Roelf Meyer can take his rightful place within the ranks of the ANC.