If you think the African Renaissance is pie in the Ciskei, do the numbers
PRESIDENT Thabo Mbeki has spent the weekend on standby on the off-chance that a trip to Zambia to hammer out a peace plan for the former Zaire will go ahead. Meanwhile, back at the (anything but) Democratic Republic of Congo, Laurent-Desirée Kabila once again played the role of the petulant child refusing to come out and play.
If you're wondering what the hell is going on, here's a brief synopsis.
Over the past week, Zimbabwe and Angola have poured in 3000 and 1000 troops respectively into the DRC in support of Kabila. Over to the east and south of the country, rebels backed by Uganda and Rwanda have firmly entrenched themselves across huge segments of territory.
In between, Uganda and Rwanda contemplate the presence of the Lord's Resistance Army and the Interahamwe Hutu militia who flit back and forth across the DRC border conducting random acts of terror.
Meanwhile, in Zimbabwe, supermarkets ran out of that most fundamental of foodstuffs, mielie meal, on Friday. In Angola, rebel warlord Jonas Savimbi has continued his retaking of diamond-rich villages backed by his well-armed and well-fed mercenaries.
The situation, as a large Afrikaner of my acquaintance might put it, is enough to make a jackal puke. Why then, you may ask, is President Mbeki putting matters back home on standby on the off-chance that he might be able to pull off a Congo miracle? Why has he already sent forth the heavyweight team of Foreign Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, Defence Minister Mosiua Lekota, and Local Government Minister Sydney Mufamadi?
The arithmetic is pretty simple. Our export market is worth about US $31,3 billion. Most of our exports go to Italy, Japan, US, Germany, UK, other EU countries and Hong Kong (although that order fluctuates somewhat).
But look at the picture from the other side and the picture changes dramatically. We are the biggest trading partner for the former Zaire, Zimbabwe, and Zambia. Their import markets are not worth that much, but they are ours — overwhelmingly. Add to this our exports to other countries in Africa south of the equator and they collectively provide our largest export market: possibly as much as a third overall.
Let me say that again. Africa is our single most important export market. More to the point, no country in the First World is able to compete for this African market more effectively than we are. Our proximity, rail and road links, communications infrastructure, probably the world's cheapest electricity (read: exportable commodity), all give us advantages that no amount of production efficiencies in the US and Europe are able to overcome.
No matter how much lip service Uncle Sam and his G8 colleagues pay to free trade, their self-interest will continue to derail South Africa's attempts to enter their terrain on equal footing. Not so in Africa where decades of destabilisation by the apartheid government, helped along by corruption and mismanagement on the part of tyrants, has left the continent in the role of consumers rather than producers.
How do we capitalise on this? The answer has to be political stability. For Africa to become our growth market, we need to drive a shift in mindset: 'No' to corruption, despotism, and mindless militarism and 'Yes' to fiscal discipline, balanced budgets, and low inflation.
This, in a nutshell, is what the African Renaissance is all about. Yes, there's touchy-feely stuff about making the next century the African Century, but this is all about economic fundamentals. If Mbeki pulls off a Congo miracle, it immediately fixes a half-dozen economies.
And all that saved money needs to be spent somewhere.